Original-Research: Cenit AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Cenit AG - from GBC AG

06.08.2025 / 12:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of GBC AG to Cenit AG

Company Name: Cenit AG

ISIN: DE0005407100

Reason for the research: Research Comment

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: 16.00 EUR

Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026

Last rating change:

Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Analysis Prime weighs on revenue and earnings; forecast and price target

lowered, BUY rating confirmed

Although CENIT AG increased its revenue by 4.4% to EUR103.71 million in the

first half of 2025 (previous year: EUR93.36 million), this performance fell

significantly short of our expectations and those of CENIT's management. The

increase in revenue was exclusively attributable to the revenues of the US

company Analysis Prime, which was acquired in July 2024 and was included in

the figures for the first half of the year for the first time. According to

our calculations, these revenues are likely to have amounted to slightly

more than EUR6 million. According to former estimates, Analysis Prime should

generate sales of around EUR25 million in the 2025 financial year. However, in

view of the sales achieved in the first half of the year, this forecast is

clearly too optimistic. Restructuring measures are currently underway at

this subsidiary, particularly at management level. At the same time, the

continuing difficult market environment in Europe is making itself felt. The

German automotive industry, in particular, which is an important customer

sector for the company, is affected by a decline in business volume, with

the result that CENIT AG had to accept an organic decline in revenue of

around 2%.

Despite the increase in revenue, EBIT deteriorated to EUR-3.69 million

(previous year: EUR2.01 million). In the first half of 2025, special expenses

of around EUR3.8 million were incurred in connection with the implementation

of the 'Project Performance' restructuring programme. This programme aims to

reduce the number of employees by around 50. Although this has resulted in

cost improvements, significant positive effects are not expected to become

apparent until the coming financial year. In addition to the special

expenses, Analysis Prime reported a negative EBIT of EUR1.6 million in the

first half of 2025, which also had a negative impact on the Group's results.

Despite the negative operating result, operating cash flow was once again

clearly positive at EUR9.99 million (previous year: EUR11.15 million). Advance

payments received contributed significantly to this, meaning that CENIT AG

remains in a very comfortable position with cash and cash equivalents of

EUR20.59 million as of 30 June 2025.

Due to the below-expectations performance of Analysis Prime and the

continuing difficult market situation, CENIT's management has significantly

adjusted its forecast. Revenue of at least EUR205 million and EBIT of at least

EUR-1.5 million are now expected. Previously, revenue of EUR229 million to EUR234

million and EBIT of EUR6.8 million to EUR7.3 million had been expected. The main

reason for this reduction in the forecast is Analysis Prime, for which sales

of around EUR15 million are currently planned, a significant adjustment

compared to the previous expectation of around EUR25 million. In addition, the

weak market situation in Europe is causing customers to remain cautious.

We are guided by the new forecast and expect revenue of EUR208.95 million and

EBIT of EUR-0.28 million. For the second half of 2025, this means a return to

positive EBIT. This is primarily a result of the virtual elimination of

special expenses, which amounted to EUR3.8 million in the first half of the

year. The elimination of these expenses in the coming financial year and the

resulting positive effects of approximately EUR5 million should have a

significant positive impact on EBIT in the coming financial year. Due to the

now lower revenue base, we have reduced our revenue forecasts for 2026 to

EUR221.35 million (previously: EUR242.22 million). However, we expect a

noticeable improvement in EBIT to EUR11.21 million (previously: EUR13.40

million). The same applies to the 2027 financial year.

Based on the adjusted DCF valuation model, we have determined a new target

price of EUR16.00 (previously: EUR19.00). The reduction in the target price is a

consequence of our lower forecasts. We are maintaining our 'BUY' rating.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=368ec2c477bd772e575c28d78204faff

Contact for questions:

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Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG

and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential

conflict of interest: (5a,6a,7,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of

interest can be found at:

https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm

ﯯ뻻ﯯ뻻

Date and time of completion of the study: 06/08/25 (10:19 am)

Date and time of the first dissemination of the study: 06/08/25 (12:00 pm)

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2180258 06.08.2025 CET/CEST

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