Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD

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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG

17.07.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG

ISIN: AT00000VIE62

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: HOLD

from: 17.07.2025

Target price: EUR 60.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

12 day war dampens growth, focus on 3rd runway decision day

Topic: FWAG released June traffic results, that are temporarily dampened by

the twelve day Iran-Israel war in June. Despite sound operating results,

investors should start to focus on the upcoming decision day for the 3rd

runway project. In detail:

June passenger numbers rose by 1.5% yoy to 4.03m on group level. The growth

was particularly driven by the strategic investments MLA (.5% yoy; 23%

group share) and KSC (.5% yoy; 2.5% group share), whereas the main airport

VIE declined by 0.4% yoy to 3.02m passengers. Compared to other European

airports (FRA: 3% yoy, MUC: 6% yoy, ZUR: 5% yoy, MAD: 0.5% yoy), VIE thus

fell behind in terms of growth. On a YTD basis however, VIE still stands

well positioned against its peers, showing a solid 2.4% yoy passenger growth

rate (FRA: 1% yoy, MUC: 3.6% yoy, ZUR: 3% yoy, MAD: 3% yoy).

This effect should be largely explained by the fact, that 1) VIE serves as

an important hub in the Israel - USA travel route and 2) is relatively

strong on the standalone Austria-Israel travel route. Due to the twelve day

Iran-Israel war, almost all VIE <-> Israel flights were cancelled (except

from Israel's airline El Al). Going forward, Austrian Airlines, Lufthansa,

Ryanair and Wizz Air aim to resume scheduled flights to Israel in August.

Therefore, the effect from the war on VIE's passenger growth should also be

visible in July '25. Although the effect cannot be isolated in full, we

estimate a c. 50k monthly passengers loss from the war, which would imply a

June growth rate of 1.3% yoy, had the war not happened.

Focus on the third runway project decision. Vienna airport should decide

upon the third runway project within the next 6-12 months, with the

following implications: In a positive decision, VIE would use its existing

cash and probably further external (debt or potentially equity) financing to

build a third runway south of the current field by 2030. Mind you, this

project would not encompass a sole runway, but would include terminal

buildings and many other infrastructure measures with a total CAPEX of more

than EUR 2bn (eNuW). This would provide sufficient capacities for decades and

would secure future growth potentials in the long-term. In a negative

decision scenario, FWAG has a very high surplus cash (Q1'25: EUR 562m), which

is not needed to fund CAPEX and which will likely be distributed to

shareholders in the form of dividends (one big special dividend or an

elevated dividend over multiple years), in our view.

Against this backdrop, the operational performance during the current summer

season is increasingly taking a back seat, when looking at FWAG as an

investment opportunity, in our view. Therefore, we reiterate our HOLD

recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 60.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=f817f9fee0011d41f2c4475e0488f1e6

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

ﯯ뻻

Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

ﯯ뻻

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2170956 17.07.2025 CET/CEST

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