Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

01.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 01.08.2025

Target price: EUR 13.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q2 preliminary EBIT out, no cause for headaches.

Topic: Yesterday, MLP announced its preliminary Q2 EBIT to arrive at only EUR

5m but confirmed its FY25 guidance. Here's our view:

In a seasonally weak second quarter, MLP has reported a preliminary EBIT of

EUR 5m, which is "significantly below" the prior year figure (Q2'24 EBIT: EUR

11.7m) and triggered therefore the legal obligation to ad-hoc this

information. However, the EBIT figure should not be a big surprise and no

reason for headaches for several reasons:

Seasonally weak second quarters are the norm at MLP. In the past, the second

quarter is seasonally weak and have low operating leverage (seasonally lower

sales with stable fixed costs). The FY share of Q2 EBITs' usually ranges

between 5-10% of the FY EBIT (ex performance fees), showing the minor

importance of Q2. On the other hand, Q1 ("non-life quarter") and Q4

("old-age quarter") traditionally carry a larger revenue and earnings share

and are thus much more important for MLP's FY results.

Absence of performance fees in Q2. FERI's funds should not have triggered

meaningful performance fees in Q2'25. However, the comparable base of Q2'24

had a positive EUR 5.4m performance fee contribution, which alone explains a

negative EUR 3.5m EBIT effect yoy (eNuW, assuming a 65% incremental EBIT

margin of performance fees).

Lower interest rate environment. Also unsurprisingly, MLP's banking business

should have yielded a lower net interest income (NIC) in Q2'25 (eNuW: EUR

11.2, down by EUR 3m or 21% yoy) than in Q2'24. Here, we estimate a 85%

incremental EBIT margin on the NIC, which implies another EUR 2.5m negative

EBIT effect yoy.

RE recovery does not come over night. On the other hand, the lower interest

rate environment should foster the RE business of MLP. However, this

business cannot be switched on or off over night but takes time to show

improving results and to make up for the decline in the banking business.

Here, for the segment "Deutschland.Immobilien", we expect a positive, but

under proportionate rise in EBIT from EUR -4m in Q2'24 to EUR -2m in Q2'25e,

thus posing a positive EUR 2m EBIT effect yoy.

Temporarily higher IT costs. Current IT projects should have also led to

temporarily higher OPEX, which we estimate in the ballpark of EUR 3m, further

burdening Q2 EBIT. Moreover, the timing seemed unfavorable, as they have

been recognized in MLP's seasonally weakest quarter, in our view.

The sum of all effects described above fully explain why the Q2 EBIT came in

at EUR 5m (vs EUR 11.7m in Q2´24). Apart from the higher IT costs, we had

already anticipated the effects, in our Q2 EBIT estimates of EUR 7-8m.

However, the fact that MLP simultaneously confirmed the guidance (EBIT: EUR

100-110m), should also support our view, that this ad-hoc should not be a

concern. Consequently, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT

of EUR 13.00, based on FCFY and SOTP.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3002730470e4d02db245626fbd5cd723

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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