Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

12.05.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 12.05.2025

Target price: EUR 5.20

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q3 prelims better than expected / CL chances rising; Chg.

BVB released a strong Q3 prelims., showing sales growth of 52% yoy to EUR 149m

(eNuW: EUR 134m) as well as an EBITDA of EUR 29.6m (eNuW: EUR 24.3m; prior year: EUR

-1.8m), implying a strong 19.9% margin.

The strong improvements are largely explained by the increased number of

games (Q3 24/25: 18 vs Q3 23/24: 13), resulting in almost a doubling of

match operation sales (% to EUR 20.3m) and strongly increased sales from TV

marketing (% to EUR 64.5m). While advertising showed comparably steady

growth of 14% to EUR 40.6m, sales from merchandising (% to EUR 9.8m) and

conference, catering and others (% to EUR 13.6m) also showed stellar growth

driven by the favorable calendar due to the new UCL format (4 more games).

Also, the departure of Donyell Malen allowed for increased transfer income

(흝% to EUR 12.6m).

While this also drove personnel expenses (% to EUR 81m), as more games

unlock more variable payments to players, BVB benefitted from operating

leverage, visible in the disproportionate cost growth. Given stable D&A of EUR

23.8m, Q3 preliminary EBIT came in at EUR 5.8m.

Importantly, BVB is now also performing on the pitch. Since a 2-0 loss

against direct competitor Leipzig in March, BVB managed to win 6 out of

their last 7 Bundesliga matches. Thanks to this streak, BVB jumped from 11th

to 5th position and reduced the gap to the crucial top-4 (UCL qualification)

from 10 points to only 1. With only one game to go and direct competitors

Freiburg (4th) and Frankfurt (3rd) facing each other, we regard BVB's

chances as good to gain a top-4 finish, especially as the team is playing

already relegated Kiel at home. Here is what needs to happen for BVB to

reach that crucial position.

Option 1: If BVB vs Kiel ends in a draw, Frankfurt must beat Freiburg, and

BVB qualifies for UCL.

Option 2: If BVB wins by a margin of 1 goal, they need either a Frankfurt

win, a draw or a Freiburg win with a margin of 2 goals.

Option 3: If BVB wins by a margin of 2 goals, they are qualified, no matter

what happens in Freiburg (only unlikely exception: BVB wins by 2 and

Freiburg wins by 1 and scores 4 goals more than BVB)

We hence upgrade BVB's chances of reaching the UCL to 90% (old: 10%),

explaining our raised estimates and reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 5.20

PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32554.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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