Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

19.05.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 19.05.2025

Target price: EUR 5.20

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Superb run secures UCL qualification; chg.

Thanks to a 3-0 home victory on Saturday, BVB has secured qualification for

the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League (UCL) on the last matchday of the season.

From the perspective of before this matchday, that was certainly not a

surprise. In March, however, BVB were still 10 points behind 4th place after

a 2-0 defeat in Leipzig, leading us to put only a 10% likelihood on the

club's UCL hopes. However, following a superb winning streak with 7

victories out of the last 8 Bundesliga matches, where the only draw was a

2-2 at Bayern, BVB jumped from 11th to 4th place.

Why is this so important? The UCL is the most competitive club competition

in the world and therefore UEFA's flagship event, leading to correspondingly

high prize money. In fact, while the overall prize money in the UCL is EUR

2.44bn, it is only EUR 565 in the UEFA Europa League (UEL) and only EUR 285m in

the UEFA Conference League (UECL). According to our calculations and

forecasts, BVB will be able to achieve EUR 78m in UCL related TV marketing

sales next season. In contrast, this figures would have been at EUR 23m in the

UEL and at EUR 14m in the UECL and of course at EUR 0 when failing entirely to

qualify for a European competition.

UCL qualification was thus crucial for the club and does now open up

significant opportunities on the transfer market in our view. Combined with

potential departures of talented players like Jamie Gittens (EUR 50m market

value) or Nico Schlotterbeck (EUR 40m), the club will receive an estimated $

51m from participating in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, which takes place in

the US during the summer.

In our view, management should be able to built a strong team around the

already strong foundation of the squad with these funds, making us confident

that in contrast to this season BVB will easily qualify for UCL in the

coming season. A first step here was the permanent signing of defender

Daniel Svensson, who has been on loan at the club since January. In 11

Bundesliga matches, he was able to produce solid stats including 2 assists

and 1 goal.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 5.20 PT based on DCF.

Register here for our digital roundtable tomorrow, where CFO Thomas Treß

will provide investors with a business update following the Bundesliga

season

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32650.pdf

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NuWays AG - Equity Research

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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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